If terrorists take over the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, Nigeria’s biggest economic artery and busiest road in Africa, from the Nigerian state, or make it difficult to travel on it, a major setback will hit Nigeria’s import-oriented economy.
The Lagos-Ibadan Expressway is important to the distribution channels of the Nigerian economy. Indeed, if this road is shut down for a long period, it might cripple the entire Nigerian economy.
The terrorists are about to turn the road into the Road to Kigali, a metaphor for the murderous killings of people that the murders regarded as the others, in the pogrom that seized Rwanda and its citizens in the unhappy 1990s.
If you have watched two movies, “Hotel Rwanda,” and “Half of a Yellow Sun,” you should have a good idea of the horror and devastation that people can experience when the roads in their communities are seized by violence.
Swirling on social media is the video of a Nigerian, with a bloody nose. He was attacked in a public bus by men he claimed were speaking Hausa at Adeniji (Adele Road) under a bridge on Lagos Island.
The military-grade gas released by the terrorists caused the passengers in the bus to sleep off. But this victim held a wet handkerchief to his nose. When the terrorists, who were wearing nose masks, saw that he wasn’t knocked out, they took him to a secluded place and tried to kill him.
If this happened within Lagos, you can only imagine what would happen if terrorists lock down Lagos-Ibadan Expressway and also take over the streets of Lagos. They will effectively shut down the economy of the South West, and of Nigeria, by extension.
This 127.6 kilometres (or 79.3 mile) Expressway that connects Lagos, hub of Nigeria’s economy, and Ibadan, West Africa’s largest settlement, is the major connection between western, eastern and northern Nigeria.
This road has a 250,000 passenger unit per day, a measure used to assess the flow of vehicular traffic on a highway, an indication of how busy and how much economic importance a road means to the economy of a country.
Roads, the most used mode of transportation, convey both humans and goods from one point to another. Roads, key to the distribution of goods, contribute to the growth and development of societies.
While speaking at the dedication of a road in Sagamu, Ogun State Governor Dapo “Eleyi” Abiodun said, “We realized that the majority of … roads have direct bearing to the economic circumstances of our people.”
If you add the economy of Lagos State, which is 30 percent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product, to those of Ogun and Oyo States, you get about half of the economy of Nigeria. If terrorists successfully lock that corridor of Nigeria down, it would amount to a complete shutdown of Nigeria’s economy.
Earlier in 2022, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria revealed that as much as N3.204 trillion, or nearly 88 percent, of the N3.73 trillion, of goods manufactured in Nigeria were produced in the industrial zones of Lagos and Ogun States.
The balance of N526 billion or about 12 percent, is manufactured in the 12 other industrial zones in other parts of Nigeria. You can see how important Lagos and Ogun States are to the economy of Nigeria.
Three researchers: Ovuokeroye Edith, Fidelia Igemodia and Nnanyon Fagha, have argued that “transportation networks (and) port activities affect per capita growth, increase fiscal revenue and economic growth.” They added that the maritime sector contributes 0.15 percent to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product.
Dr. Joseph Odumodu, a former Director General of Standard Organisation of Nigeria, says that 80 percent of goods imported to Nigeria come through the seaports.
As you know, experts argue that seaports are the most cost-efficient way of conveying goods between countries.
Nigeria Customs Service has admitted to SHIPS & PORTS online publication that it generates more than 80 percent of its revenue from Lagos, Ogun, Oyo and Ondo states. These states suggest that the Lagos ports are responsible for most of the oceangoing freight that comes into Nigeria.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the global agency formed to promote the interest of developing countries in world trade, reveals that of the 70 percent of goods coming to West Africa and Central Africa, clearly 80 percent is transported by sea to Nigeria.
As if to confirm this, the Lagos Port Complex, established in 1921 as the first planned river port in Nigeria, earned the appellation of “Liverpool of West Africa” because it was, for a long time, the hub of maritime transportation in West Africa.
It has a total of 20 berths capable of handling general cargo vessels, reefer vessels and other types of vessels. On the other hand, Tin Can Island, developed in 1975, but commissioned in 1977, has 11 berths.
Now, if foodstuffs are prevented from coming to Lagos from the hinterland where farms have suffered the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and attacks from terrorists, the consequent food insecurity will be dire.
The artificial scarcity will soon get even worse from attempts by those suspected to be stockpiling sorghum, millet, soyabeans, maize and other grains, in order to avoid taking their huge inventory of old Naira notes to the bank, now that Central Bank of Nigeria has redesigned the currency.
Prof Kingsley Moghalu, former CBN Deputy Governor and former presidential aspirant of African Democratic Congress, says food inflation, heightened by terrorists attack on farm folks, is about 60 percent of inflation in Nigeria.
What is not enough has become unavailable, leading to a huge threat to food security and a dearth of industrial raw materials in Nigeria, or, at least, the Southwest, the hub of industrial production in Nigeria.
In addition, fear, that may significantly impede the movement of goods manufactured in Lagos and Ogun States on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway to other parts of the country, may lead to high stock of inventory and artificial scarcity of manufactured goods.
Those who argue for the Calabar-Lagos Railway line, to move goods and passengers between Eastern and Western Nigeria, don’t know if they should continue with the argument anymore. The breach of security on the Abuja-Kaduna Railway line earlier in 2022 shoots down the argument.
It’s not for nothing that Section 14 of the 1999 Constitution places security and welfare, another word for the economy, of Nigeria on the same pedestal. It is only in a safe and secure environment that an economy can flourish.
It’s a welcome development that Deputy Inspector General of Police in charge of South West Nigeria, Johnson Kokumo, visited the vicinity of the crime. Though a few weeks too late, Nigerians expect him to swiftly come up with tangible, visible, effective and sustained action to curb the menace.
Of course, one can see the static vehicles of security agencies, like the Army, the police and the Amotekun Corp, at least close to Ibadan end of the expressway at Oni garri, it wouldn’t be out of place to suggest the use of Unmanned Aviation Vehicles, otherwise known as drones, to monitor the entire extent of the road.
Securing the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway is the irreducible minimum that President Muhammadu Buhari can do to rejuvenate Nigeria’s economy.
