President Bola Tinubu’s N8000 freebie (for six months), to the 12 million so-called vulnerable Nigerian families is a regrettable and “underwhelming” reversal of gains. And it is difficult to understand why he chose that path.
Not only connoisseurs of Fela Anikulapo-Kuti’s Afrobeat music will understand that the expression, “Overtake Don Overtake Overtake,” somewhat akin to reggae musician, Max Romeo’s “One Step Forward, Two Steps Backward” refrain, means a loss after a gain.
When on the streets of Lagos, they say you are falling their hand, what they are trying to tell you is that you are disappointing them, going back on their high expectations of you, and doing what they never expected you to do.
By adopting a policy of former president Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, President Tinubu has reversed his bold step resulting from his assertion that “Fuel subsidy is gone,” to cancel the initial gains to introduce the plan to pay the N8000 monthly freebie.
What happened is that, at best, the President has merely fallen into the simplistic trap of the Keynesian economic theorists, who think you could give the economy a shot in the arm by paying some citizens to dig a hole, and paying another set of citizens to refill the holes.
If the purpose is to put money in the hands of the citizens so that the Gross Domestic Product can be increased, the President should have identified a public work, say an infrastructure need, and put the money there.
That way, he would have given the money out anyway. And he would have also provided an enduring infrastructural asset for the good of every citizen, including those who would not have directly benefited from the payout.
Maybe the President could seek the National Assembly’s approval to use the virement instrument, which allows the transfer of government funds from one vote or expenditure sub-head to another, to move the money approved for the freebie to an identified public work.
A reader called the other day to say, “Mr Sote. Please tell the President. We don’t need such money. Let him run the economy well and we will take it up from there.” Though you could say that is the opinion of just one individual, you have to pay attention to his demand for good governance.
Instead of running a government by palliatives, which may have to be supported by foreign loans or Ways and Means provided by the Central Bank of Nigeria that is already having problems getting back the N23.7tn that was advanced to the government of President Buhari and his predecessors.
Mischievous people are already insinuating that the “dole” will end up in the coffers of the All Progressives Congress stalwarts, (the thugs and the women who sing “On Your Mandate We Shall Stand,” even when it is not necessary).
The June 2023 Nigeria Development Update, compiled by the World Bank, indicates that as many as 42.69 million of the 50 million Nigerians targeted did not benefit from the monthly N5000 cash transfer programme of the Buhari government.
Yet others have expressed the opinion that the potentially pliant 10th National Assembly approved the freebie in order to have the good conscience to award N70bn palliatives and the N40bn for the purchase of SUVs for the legislators who gave a yes vote for the palliatives of the poor.
When the Yoruba say, “Ko mu ‘kan ko mi, ko mu ‘kan ko ‘ra re,” they are suggesting the equitable, but mercenary, affirmative action of “settling” each other in the spirit of scratching the back of those who scratch your back!
What these theorists fail to understand is that the N8000, which is inadequate, will be used to buy basic consumer items, like food, most of which is imported. This, in everyday English, means that the N500bn will end up supporting the economies that export foodstuffs to Nigeria.
By the way, if those who will “share the money” need any assistance, they can consult the Buhari administration’s in-house expert, Sadiya Umar Farouq, who was Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development.
She is the expert who knows how to provide feeding for school children who were at home during a pandemic that was as deadly as COVID-19 that kept the whole world indoors for the better part of 2020 and 2021.
When the President said, “I do not want the cash transfer to fall into the wrong hands,” he somehow acknowledged the fact that the distribution of the cash palliative is subject to abuse and corruption.
But, more seriously now, what Nigerians expected, after going through the harrows of removal of fuel subsidy and unifying the naira exchange rate, are reports of the gains of curbing crude oil bunkering and the revenue saved therefrom.
One would have thought that President Tinubu, who has been sold to Nigerians as a president who came ready for the job, should have deployed the security agencies to guarantee safety on the farms so that the farmers can return to the soil– to produce foodstuffs, raw materials for the agro-allied industry and cash crops for export.
Nigerians expected working policies, accompanied by appropriate actions, to reconfigure the electricity sector, whose performance has even become worse in recent times, and not the deafening silence.
They thought that after meeting with agents of International Oil Companies, a well-thought-out energy policy would be rolled out, to enhance the production and sales of crude oil in the international market.
Also, they thought there would have been a plan to encourage other domestic petroleum refineries to fill the gap created by the four moribund government-owned refineries (and the Dangote Refinery that was dedicated by former President Buhari, but which has yet to hit the market).
No one expects the President to immediately commence construction of the Calabar-Lagos railway line that former President Buhari deftly avoided, to go build the Kano-Maradi Railway line to link the Niger Republic, but he must begin to talk about it.
When the President begins to talk about his plans, the private sector will take a cue, and the economy will respond accordingly. Those on the stock exchange, who know the importance of good news, should offer to help the President in the art of managing information about good intentions.
One good news though is the announcement that food security will be included in the schedule of the National Security Council. That gives you the impression that the President appreciates the urgency of opening up the farms.
The President’s Special Adviser on Special Duties, Communication and Strategy, Dele Alake, recently announced that fertilisers and grains will be released to farmers “to guarantee that food is available all year round.”
And Governor Hope Uzodimma of Imo State, the man who came from the fourth position to emerge as governor, may have borrowed a leaf from the President’s grace notes to alleviate the impact of fuel subsidy removal on the people.
In addition to planning to raise the minimum monthly wage to N40,000 (which may not be sustainable in the long run), Governor Uzodimma promised to give soft loans and grants and provide seedlings and farm tools to farmers.
Such policies and programmes are the expectations of Nigerians from the social contract they entered into with President Tinubu.
