Now to playing Nostradamus, formally known as Michel de Nostredame, French astrologer, physician and seer, who was born in 1503 and died in 1566. In 1555 he wrote a book, Les Prophéties or The Prophecies, a compilation of 942 poetic quatrains or stanzas of four lines to predict the future.
Unlike predictions of Nostradamus, based on psychic and astrological foundations, prognostications here will be based on futurology, a scientific reading of trends that are obvious and not esoteric pretensions.
If you heard Elon Musk of SpaceX — spacecraft manufacturers — and Tesla — electric car manufacturers — say that within 10 years, breakthroughs in neurology devices will enable human conversations at the speed of thought, you’ll understand futurology.
In 2022, there will be intense campaigns for presidential, governorship and legislative offices. Many may be assassinated, and embarrassments will be rife because (social) media will be publishing falsehoods and the truth to destroy the chances of some prospective contestants for elective offices.
For political parties, recognised by the Independent National Electoral Commission for 2023 general elections, 2022 will be a season of crashes of feeble political contraptions. Others will morph into one while splinter political parties and candidates will follow the money to other political parties.
As expected, the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), will join the nationwide campaign train to canvass for votes for whoever is the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate in the February 2023 general elections.
Governor Mai Bala Buni of Yobe State should have stepped down from being Chairman of APC Interim Committee/Extraordinary Convention Committee to avoid constitutional snafu that may arise if someone extends the argument of breach of Section 183 of Nigeria’s Constitution to the courts.
That section reads: “The Governor shall not, during the period when he holds office, hold any other executive office or paid employment in any capacity (that may include political party chairman?) whatsoever.”
The new Chairman and National Executive Council of the APC would be unveiled, and that should be a pointer to which geopolitical zone the APC presidential candidate will come from. Speculations of whether the APC will present a Muslim/Muslim presidential ticket would be laid to rest.
Some ministers will resign, in order to contest gubernatorial elections in their states, whilst governors, who are about to exhaust their two-term mandates, will be seeking to kick some sitting senators out of the Senate so that they can take the wisdom (and money?) they have garnered for use in the red chamber of the National Assembly.
A lot of legitimate and illegitimate money will be thrown around. Such that as more people have free money in their hands, there will be too much money in the system, and inflation will, more than likely, spike.
It goes without saying that the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, will resign himself to this reality because it is common knowledge that you cannot run electioneering campaigns in a modern democracy without spending a lot of money.
Whatever may have been the projected or recommended CBN Monetary Policy Committee’s cash reserves and liquidity ratios will not matter at all. Remember that funding for electioneering campaigns will come from within and without the monetary or financial system of Nigeria.
And the high liquidity and rising inflation, resulting from the expected high campaign spending, will lead to a fluke rise in the growth rate of the gross domestic product, especially in the service industries, of the media, logistics, hotels, travel, hospitality, telecommunications and music (incidentally).
Manufacturing will remain in the doldrums.
The naira will likely depreciate further because Nigeria will continue to import most of its strategic consumer goods, like petroleum products, inputs for building constructions and infrastructure, and staple food items, like rice, poultry, fish and vegetable oil, part of which will be distributed to poverty-stricken electorates.
As always, the Federal Budget, with N6.25 trillion deficit, will not be able to realise the N17.127 trillion inflow from sundry sources, including new debts, that has been projected for the 2022 budget year.
In other words, Nigerians must expect a shortfall in the N10.70 billion revenue projected from taxes, income from government-owned enterprises and sales of crude oil and boarded government assets.
As projected in the budget, capital expenditure will be N5.47 trillion and recurrent expenditure capital expenditure will be N11.757 trillion, which includes N3.901 trillion for debt servicing and sinking fund retirement.
As hinted in the Nigeria National Development Plan 2021-2025, Nigeria’s debt profile that stood at N38 trillion by end of September 2021, is expected to rise to a dizzying N50.22 trillion by end of 2023. Regrettably, most of the debts will fund recurrent expenditures.
While you should expect a higher interest rate regime and a rise in the issuance of Federal Government Treasury Bills (with higher rates), do not expect a dramatic delivery of infrastructure which the (unrealistic) Federal Government is promising.
One hopes the President’s veto against the amendment of Section 87 of the Electoral Act is upheld by the NASS so that the right of political parties to choose between direct and indirect primaries is preserved, and the idea of Independent Candidates is considered.
Everyone is hoping that NASS will retain the introduction of electronic transmission of election results as the President has (surprisingly) done. If the electronic transmission idea is sustained, Nigeria is definitely on the road to an improved Option A4 voting system.
Political campaign communication will inundate the television, radio, billboards, print and social media. You will see or read a lot of planted stories, sometimes bordering on fake news. Some so-called scoops will be outright fabricated lies or, at least, half-truths, twisted far from the original sins.
As indicated by the President, more funds will be committed to combating the insecurity threats of insurgency, banditry and run-of-the-mill crimes, though the battle will not be as successful as it should be.
Governor Bello Masari laments that Katsina State has less than 3,000 police officers, though tight security will be visible on election days. Recall that 34,000 police officers, military and paramilitary agents were drafted to police the 2021 Anambra State gubernatorial election that was won by Prof Charles Soludo, former CBN Governor.
The world will become even flatter, and everywhere will be more accessible. Nigeria, of course, will further hook up to the New Economy, a euphemism for the Fourth Industrial Revolution of the digital economy. More Nigerians will be of the world, but remain physically in Nigeria; more “glocal” — global but local citizens — will reside in Nigeria.
Nigeria’s music will further hug the international airwaves with a higher impact. New musical raves will appear in the music firmament to give the Davidos, WizKids, Burna Boys, Tina Savages and Tenis a run for their money, and many of them will be involved in political conversations.
Just as the Fela Anikulapo-Kutis, Ebenezer Obeys, King Sunny Adès, Oliver de Conques and Sikiru Ayinde Barristers took their music to the end of the world, Nigeria’s music, which is already travelling to Europe, North America and Africa, will be doing more international tours.
While deaths will plateau, even drop, because of the milder Omicron variant and deployment of antiviral Paxlovid and Molnupiravir drugs, people will still die of COVID-19. As you can guess, Nigeria still won’t produce its own vaccine.
By 2022 end, staying alive will be the average Nigerian’s greatest achievement.
